For the first time since 1999 when the current democratic dispensation started in Nigeria, the European Union (EU) is dimming its spotlight on Nigeria’s elections by declining to deploy a full election observation mission in 2027. This portends a negative signal to Nigeria’s electoral system.
In response to INEC’s recent invitation for 2027, the EU has stepped back from the stage. The reason: a worsening security landscape and what it called the “hostile treatment” of its observers after the 2023 elections. Instead of the 110 observers who covered all 36 states in 2023, the EU will now send 2 – 4 officials to sit and work in the country’s capital, Abuja — like a night guard watching from the comfort of his room instead of walking around the robbery-prone neighbourhood.
This is not just a diplomatic recalibration. It is a warning siren loud enough to reach the global community and put them on red alert. And for those of us who have trained observers under zinc and thatched roofs, walked polling units on smooth and rough terrains at dawn, dissected results between 12am and 5am, and wrote findings and recommendations for improvements before sunrise, it is a negative signal written in bold ink. But to those election stakeholders who run the show and to those whose participation in it is highly critical, would this action by the EU really matter to them? Would it really matter to them even if democracy died a fitful death?
The EU has been a constant fixture in Nigeria’s democratic story since 1999 — a recurring character in every election chapter, acting as a watchdog, building the capacity of local staff, and giving technical and financial support to INEC. The EU has always deployed full missions, boots fully on the ground, long-term eyes before and after E-Day and both long-term and short-term eyes on E-Day. In 2023, 11 core experts arrived 6 weeks early. 40 Long Term Observers (LTOs) spread across the country like a wide net. Over 70 Short Term Observers (STOs) came in for E-Day making a total of 110 accredited observers who stayed until mid-April. Their June 2023 report was an X-ray of our electoral system. It diagnosed “enduring systemic weaknesses” and said cracks in law and administration had eroded public trust in INEC. This report infuriated the ruling party that mounted a widespread campaign against the EU Election Observation Mission (EU EOM).
You could agree or disagree with the prescription provided by the EU EOM. But you couldn’t ignore the diagnosis. That report became the compass Civil Society Organisations (CSOs) used and are still using, the mirror donors looked and are still looking into, and the checklist INEC had to answer and is still answering. Some of the recommendations of the report that the CSOs as implementing partners of the European Union Support to Democratic Governance in Nigeria (EU-SDGN) Programme Phase II adopted as frameworks to reform Nigeria’s electoral system met a brick wall in the National Assembly. A reformed electoral system would have reflected in the 2026 Electoral Act. In the eyes of many electoral analysts, the 2026 Electoral Act that will be used for the conduct of the 2027 Elections have some sections that will water the soil for the seed of electoral malpractices to germinate. For example section 63 (1) says a ballot without INEC’s official mark shall not be counted. But Section 63(2) allows a Returning Officer to count it anyway if he satisfied it came from the correct ballot booklet. That contradiction creates room for disputes.
Now, that the EU compass is being folded away – a full mission of over 100 observers being reduced to an Electoral Expert Mission of 2 – 4 independent experts – what are the implications?
- A Credibility and Legitimacy Gap: International Election Observation does two things: it acts as a deterrent and as a seal. Think of it as the CCTVs in every corner of a big building. Without a full EU mission in 2027, we are removing one of the cameras and asking the world to trust the footage anyway. Domestic observers will definitely set up, and other inter-governmental organisations may also set up missions. But Domestic Observation groups don’t carry the same diplomatic armour while other inter-governmental organisations don’t usually cover more states than EU. For investors, the diaspora, and foreign partners, the question will hang in the air like smoke: “Who watched this election and can vouch for it with weight?”
- The Burden Might Shifts Entirely to Nigerian CSOs: A worsening security landscape cited by the EU as one of the reasons for taking that action might make other inter-governmental organisations not to set up any mission in 2027 or follow the footstep of the EU. The question will be: If the EU that always deployed observers with security orderlies is now citing a worsening security landscape as a reason for not setting up a full mission, will other inter-governmental organisations that usually deployed observers without security orderlies deploy full missions to observe the 2027 elections? Therefore, CSOs working at the national level and those working at sub-national level will have to carry the cross alone to the Mount Calvary.
Nigeria’s CSOs at the national and sub-national levels have proven over the years that they are up to the task. Starting from 2011, they deployed thousands of observers and used Parallel Vote Tabulation (PVT) to provide parallel results in real time. The PVT strategy had been used and applauded over the years. But the EU missions do not just bring observers. They bring funding, logistics, diplomatic cover, and a megaphone that reaches Brussels, London and Washington. A local observer in a remote Local Government Area (LGA) has courage, but not an embassy on speed dial.
- The Security Signal Is Loud: The EU did not whisper. It said “insecurity” out loud. That phrase is now stamped on Nigeria’s 2027 risk profile. It is a red flag on every donor dashboard, every travel advisory, and every partner’s risk matrix. As someone who has observed and analysed elections, I know security is not just about sensitive and non-sensitive materials, it is about whether an ad-hoc staff can get home alive. Whether a voter can walk to a polling unit without looking over her shoulder. Whether an observer can do his work without the fear of bandits. If the EU does not feel safe sending 40 LTOs into states, what message does that send to other inter-governmental organisations? What message does that send to Nigerian voters? Nigeria and Nigerians need a whole-of-government security blueprint now — not a fire brigade in January 2027.
- A Chilling Effect on Critical Assessment: The second reason was “hostile treatment” after the 2023 report. Almost all the observation groups that observed the 2023 Elections said the same thing in different ways. After the release of the report, the temperature rose in the room. The truth has to be told. But when truth is treated like an enemy, people learn to keep quiet and run for cover. If international observers now fear backlash for speaking the truth, domestic observers will feel the chill twice as cold. We risk building an echo chamber where the only reports allowed are lullabies that say “All is well.” But democracy does not grow in echo chambers. It grows in sunlight. As a political analyst, I need honest data the way a surgeon needs an X-ray.
- Diplomatic and Development Spillovers: The EU is not just an election tourist. It is a partner in governance, health, humanitarian aid, and trade. When one thread in the relationship frays, the whole fabric feels it. A strained election relationship can delay funding, slow projects, and cool diplomatic warmth. As a consultant, I have watched one tense meeting stall three programmes. I have seen one mistake that cancelled a whole laudable programme. We must manage this with statesmanship — address the concerns, guarantee safety, and keep the bridge open.
What is the way forward?
The recent action by EU creates an Opportunity for INEC and Nigeria: Every door that closes is also an invitation to build a new one. This is INEC’s moment to hoist its flag firmly on the ground. INEC should turn CSOs from mere critics into co-designers of electoral frameworks that will deliver credible elections the world would be proud of. INEC should open the books for transparency and accountability. It should hold good town halls that are not just for cameras and screens but for serious civic education. The Commission should sustain dialogue with political parties. In collaboration with the security agencies, INEC should publish an Election Security Plan (ESP) very early and test it to identify gaps and shortcomings and bridge the gaps before E-DAY. INEC should try and own the honest narrative by commissioning Nigerian-led security assessments that will identify the hot/dangerous spots of elections, and publish them before someone else does.
Nigeria is not a democracy in diapers anymore. The country is 27 years into democratic dispensation with 4 successful civil transitions, including an opposition victory in 2015. We may not have the perfect laws and the institutions, but we have the people. The EU’s withdrawal is asking us a direct question: Can you run a credible election that will be applauded globally without the international poll watchers giving their verdicts?
2007 is already on the horizon, other development partners should invest in domestic observation infrastructure, fund their tech, their data, hubs, situation rooms, observation methodology and their legal and physical protection. The EU with a lean technical team should scale their operations with beefed-up support from non-partisan local staff and assistants.
The EU’s recent action is a signal, not a sentence! The EU is not walking out of the room. It is only moving to the back row. The question is: Will Nigeria sulk, or will we step to the front and make positive headlines?
I have seen elections where observers were the wall between order and chaos. I have seen polling units breathe easier because someone was watching. I have also seen what happens in the dark. 2027 will be a stress test. But stress tests reveal strength. Whether there are 110 observers or 3, the principles must not change: transparency, participation, security, accountability, impartiality, effective laws, integrity and credibility. The time to secure trust is not in 2027. It is now.
Moshood Folorunsho is a Democracy Expert, Political & Electoral Analyst and Election Observer
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