By Adebisi
Ibadan – As Nigeria inches closer to the 2027 presidential election, the opposition space is becoming increasingly crowded, fragmented and unpredictable. Several political figures are positioning themselves as alternatives to President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and the ruling All Progressives Congress, APC.
Among the emerging formations, however, the alliance between Oyo State Governor Seyi Makinde and the Allied Peoples Movement, APM, presents an interesting political proposition.
Whether it can ultimately translate into a successful presidential challenge remains a question for the electorate to decide. But there are identifiable factors that make the Makinde–APM combination worthy of serious attention.
A sitting governor outside the traditional opposition establishment
One of Makinde’s biggest political assets is that he is not entering the 2027 contest solely as a career opposition politician.
He is a sitting governor with seven years of executive experience by the time of the election. His record in Oyo State — particularly in infrastructure, education, road development, investment promotion and public-sector reforms — gives his campaign a concrete governance record to present to voters.
That distinction matters because a presidential campaign built around governing experience can make a different argument from one based principally on dissatisfaction with the incumbent.
Makinde himself has repeatedly challenged opposition politicians to make the 2027 contest a comparison of records, ideas and measurable outcomes rather than merely an election about who is against whom.
APM gives Makinde a different political vehicle
The decision to run under the APM platform also changes the equation.
Makinde’s political journey has been closely associated with the PDP, but the internal difficulties within the party have complicated the opposition landscape. His alliance with APM provides another platform from which he can pursue a presidential bid while seeking to retain relationships across opposition parties.
In May 2026, Makinde announced a PDP–APM alliance that he described as capable of fielding candidates across the electoral spectrum. APM subsequently presented him as its presidential candidate and submitted his nomination details to INEC.
The significance is less about the size of APM today and more about what the platform could become if other opposition interests decide to work through it.
The real test is coalition-building
No opposition party can realistically ignore the arithmetic of coalition politics in a presidential election.
The opposition currently includes several major political personalities and groups, including Atiku Abubakar’s ADC, Peter Obi’s NDC and Makinde’s APM, alongside other parties and factions.
Recent meetings between Obi and Makinde have renewed speculation about a broader opposition arrangement. Their joint appearance at the inauguration of Makinde’s APM campaign office has added another layer to those discussions. Both camps, however, have reportedly characterised their engagements as consultations rather than a concluded electoral alliance.
That distinction is important.
The question for Makinde and APM is therefore not simply whether they can build a campaign around Makinde. It is whether they can become part of a coalition broad enough to bring together different opposition constituencies without destroying their individual political identities.
The southern factor
Another element of the 2027 conversation is geography.
President Tinubu is from the South-West. Some political actors argue that the South should retain the presidency in 2027, while others reject the idea of treating the presidency as subject to an informal rotational arrangement.
APM has explicitly used the southern succession argument in making its case for Makinde. That is a political argument advanced by the party, rather than an established constitutional rule.
Makinde therefore enters the contest with an unusual combination: a South-West base, a southern identity and an ambition to build support beyond the region.
Whether voters will consider regional continuity important is ultimately an electoral question.
Oyo could become the laboratory
There is another reason Makinde’s candidacy deserves attention: Oyo State itself.
Makinde won the governorship in 2019 when the APC controlled both the federal government and Oyo State. He subsequently secured a second term in 2023.
His supporters cite those victories as evidence that an opposition candidate can build a coalition capable of defeating a better-established political structure.
That argument is now being tested on a much larger scale.
The movement of political actors between APC, PDP and APM in Oyo also suggests that the state’s political structure is becoming part of the wider 2027 realignment. On September 21, Makinde received a group of APC defectors into APM in Ibadan, although the size and durability of such movements will ultimately have to be measured through electoral results rather than rallies or defections alone.
But the obstacles are substantial
The Makinde–APM proposition is not without serious challenges.
First is national structure. A governor can possess substantial political influence in his home state without automatically having a comparable organisation across Nigeria.
Second is opposition fragmentation. Atiku, Obi, Makinde and other political actors have their own ambitions and constituencies. Recent discussions about a single opposition candidate demonstrate that cooperation is easier to discuss than to achieve.
Third is the APM brand itself. Unlike APC and PDP, APM does not currently possess comparable nationwide visibility or electoral history.
And finally, there is the question of whether opposition parties can agree on the most difficult issue of all: who should lead the coalition?
That may ultimately determine whether the opposition enters 2027 as several individual campaigns or as one coordinated political force.
The bigger question
The significance of Makinde and APM may therefore lie beyond the APM logo.
It is the possibility of combining an incumbent governor’s governing record with a relatively flexible political platform and a broader opposition coalition.
That model is still being tested.
The 2027 election may ultimately produce a contest between the established governing structure of the APC and one or more opposition formations. Whether Makinde and APM become the centre of a broader opposition arrangement will depend on negotiations, political structures, candidate agreements and, ultimately, the choices of Nigerian voters.
For now, the most interesting question is not whether Makinde has already emerged as the opposition’s answer to Tinubu.
It is whether Makinde and APM can turn the growing demand for opposition cooperation into an organised national political alternative.
That is where the real battle for 2027 may be fought.
I deliberately kept the headline “could become” rather than declaring Makinde/APM the viable opposition, because the available evidence shows an evolving coalition process rather than an established electoral outcome.
